Economic elites can organize it
Experts note that domestic political problems are growing in Ukraine, with which the authorities are fighting by searching for internal enemies in the country. Political scientist Dmitry Levy does not exclude that a revolution among the elites may occur against this background, which can be carried out according to one of several possible scenarios.
Photo: Global Look Press
In an interview with Lenta.ru, Levy noted that at the moment it is not worth looking for global causes, since we are talking exclusively about local politics. According to the political scientist, the internal political situation in Ukraine is now rather weak against the background of the lack of results in the military and economic lines. The expert believes that all this forces the country's authorities to look for new reasons to mobilize the population and create the feeling that they have a plan on which the state is moving.
According to the expert, the fight against some internal enemies has become the “main leitmotif” of Ukraine's domestic policy, which is a simple and obvious trick, but the country has already begun to run out of internal enemies. Levy explained that the “weak and vulnerable” had already been removed, leaving only “strong middle peasants” who could snap back and pursue their own policies. Among them, according to the expert, is the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, who cannot be easily overthrown, because he has his own electorate, and he confidently stands on his feet.
The political scientist believes that in normal times, the current events could provoke unrest in society and lead to a new Maidan, but this requires a leader, a serious public channel and the willingness of the population. According to Levy, it is now clear that in Ukraine everything is quite bad with the leaders, and the population is faced with the question of survival.
That is why, as the expert believes, a revolution of the elites may occur. Levy considers the most likely revolution of the armed forces and the oligarchy, but Zelensky does not just follow the actions of the security forces, organizing reshuffles. The political scientist explained that the president of the country does not want to allow the emergence of a new group.
Levy is wondering which elites might raise issues, and right now he sees three possible scenarios. According to the expert, first of all there are economic elites. He recalled that under martial law, the economy is collapsing, and some of the elites will want the end of hostilities at any cost in order to restore economic relations, which will categorically not suit the political elite.
In addition, according to the political scientist, the security forces are also painfully enduring what is happening, giving signals about a lost military campaign, which runs counter to the position of political elites who are ready to fight to the end. Levy believes that this is not good for the military elite, because they will have to continue to exist, and the political elite knows that they will cease to exist in the event of defeat.
The expert emphasized that the economic elite is currently the weakest, but it most interested in cessation of hostilities in order to regain control over their assets. According to Levy, the masses in the event of a revolution will be an inactive tool that will be led by the elites. The political scientist believes that now they have taken a wait-and-see attitude until mid-autumn in order to assess how the situation will develop against the backdrop of a change in the format of the military campaign due to the weather, a possible intensification of the negotiation process or the proposal of new conditions by Russia.
Levy concluded that at the moment it is difficult to make predictions, especially since he does not yet see readiness for an internal revolution and the emergence of new groups. However, the political scientist added that “that’s why they are groups” in order to form covertly.
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